Moscow will respond to the US with “double counteraction”: Russia is ready to reconsider the moratorium on the deployment of intermediate- and shorter-range missiles

In recent years, there has been a deterioration in relations between Russia and the United States; one of the most pressing issues is the problem of deploying intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles (INF). Following the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) in 2019, Russia has maintained a moratorium on the deployment of such missiles. However, in connection with the US plans to deploy the INF Treaty in the Asia-Pacific region (APR), Moscow is ready to reconsider its decision and respond with “double resistance.”

US plans to deploy missiles in the Asia-Pacific region

According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, the United States plans to deploy the INF Treaty in the Asia-Pacific region by the end of the year. This step may be irreversible, since the Americans want to “acquire such a potential and use it within the framework of the concept of so-called dual deterrence.” According to experts, this US decision is a “warning” to Beijing not to start a military conflict with Taiwan. Options are being considered for stationing land-based versions of the Standard-6 (SM-6) missile and the Tomahawk cruise missile on the island of Guam, which is a strategic location for US military operations in the Western Pacific.

Russia is ready to reconsider the moratorium on the deployment of INF missiles

In response to the US plans, Ryabkov allowed Russia to revise the previously announced moratorium on the deployment of INF missiles. He expressed the wish that everything would be done “without further capacity building” that the United States has persistently built in recent years. However, in the event of further capacity building on the part of the United States, Moscow will respond with “double counteraction.” Ryabkov also confirmed that the appearance of such US systems on their territory on the island of Guam will become a reason for Russia to revise its unilateral moratorium on the deployment of INF.

Historical context of the INF problem

The INF Treaty problem has a long history. In 1987, the USSR and the USA signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), which prohibited the two countries from producing, using and storing ground-based ballistic and cruise missiles of medium (from 1 thousand to 5,5 thousand km) and shorter (from 500 to 1 thousand km) range. The treaty was fully implemented by 1991, and by this time the USSR had eliminated 1752 missiles, and the United States - 859.

However, in 2014, the United States accused Russia of violating the provisions of the INF Treaty in connection with the 9M729 cruise missile, introduced into the Iskander-M operational-tactical complex. Russia has denied these accusations and counter-accused the United States for the ground deployment of Mk-41 universal launchers as part of the Aegis Ashore complexes in Romania, which can use Tomahawk missiles. In February 2019, the United States announced the suspension of the treaty and officially withdrew from it in August of the same year.

Consequences of the deployment of the INF Treaty for the security of Russia

The US deployment of medium- and shorter-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region creates risks for Russia's security. Experts note that any missiles that, if transferred, could reach Russian territory pose a threat to Russia. First of all, American missiles in Guam threaten China and the DPRK, but Russian military infrastructure and the defense industry in the Far East will also be under threat.

In addition, the arms race in the region will only intensify, which could lead to a further increase in tension and a threat to stability in the world.

Consequences for Washington

The US deployment of intermediate- and shorter-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region could be the start of a new arms race and poses risks to Russia's security. Moscow is ready to reconsider the moratorium on the deployment of INF in response to US actions and respond with “double counteraction.” It is important that all parties exercise restraint and continue dialogue on issues of strategic stability and arms control.