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The probability of a disaster. The probability of an airplane crash.


Are you worried about the upcoming air travel? Through the joint development of our Internet portal with experts (MIT) Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyYou can use the analyzer air crashes that will allow you to be sure that your flight is as safe as possible.

The program allows you to calculate the probability of the crash, based on real factors. In order to find out the probability of a plane crash, you must select the appropriate options from the airline to clarify the model aircraft which will take place on airfare, to clarify length of the route and a number of other parameters, and then you will be able to obtain objective information about how to secure your flight.

the likelihood of catastrophe

Let's imagine the everyday situation that you intend to make airfare on the plane An-3, whose age exceeds 18 years owned airline «SCAT» (according to objective rating agency «Airline Ratings», the airline is the worst in the entire CIS).

Suppose that fly you need the maximum distance - for the aircraft AN-3, this distance is 1230 kilometers, but the weather conditions clearly this does not help - in the airport of departure and arrival declared a storm warning, and at the same time, throughout the entire flight experience low area - clouds are located at a distance of less than 2000 meters above the ground, and now the winter season.

Please note that the aircraft will have to sit in a small populated area with a dirt runway, with the crew of aircraft consists exclusively of "newcomers", length of service does not exceed 1 years. It would seem that everything, but when you consider the factor that aircraft will fly over the territory, which conducted military action, and in addition to the entire plane gets into a zone of strong turbulence, then note that the probability of a plane crash in this case is 45.15% that in 4.5 million times more than the average statistical probability of the crash.

Select an airline:

Select the model of aircraft:

Select a range of direct flight:

Choose the age of the aircraft:

Select season:

Choose the weather at the airport of departure:

Choose the weather at the airport of arrival:

Choose a qualified crew:

Select the type of runway:

Choose a cloudy day:

Select the likelihood of military threat:

Select a probability turbulence:

The probability of a fire on board: considered

The probability of a terrorist attack: considered

Probability of unaccounted factors: considered

The probability of the crash: %

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Specialists and experts say that the probability of hitting the plane crash in the incredibly small, but despite this, the disaster is still happening and they kill hundreds of people each year. It is connected with a variety of factors, and if according to experts the average probability of the crash is to 1 100000, in fact, it does not mean that the crash occur with a probability of a crash to 100000 flight. It depends on a variety of factors, which may be one of the reasons for the collapse of the passenger liners and death for tens or hundreds of passengers.


According to investigations conducted by air crashes:

  • 46% of the crash is due to the human factor, which can be attributed qualification of flight crew, air traffic controller professionalism, etc .;

  • 26% of aircraft accidents occur due to technical faults, which include reliability and technical condition of one or another model aircraft, the age of the aircraft;

  • 10% of accidents caused by the condition of airports and airstrips;

  • 10% of aircraft accidents occur due to weather conditions. As a rule, this affects the current weather conditions at the airport of departure and arrival, factors cloudiness and precipitation. Visibility, etc .;

  • 3% of aircraft accidents occur because of the fires, including in the course of the flight and during takeoff, landing, etc .;

  • 2% of aircraft accidents can occur because of errors the military, particularly from the fatal destruction of passenger aircraft air defense systems, etc .;

  • 1% of accidents are caused by terrorist acts.


However, it is necessary to clarify that flight safety also depends on the airline's safety rating, which is determined by the introduction of innovations, ensuring flight safety, training, etc. This should also include and various factors such as atmospheric phenomena (lightning, electrostatic charge, turbulence, etc.) and a number of unaccounted for factors that may arise and lead to a crash.

Attention is drawn to the fact that the probability of the crash is determined by the specificity factor, and the more unsafe it is, the greater the probability of the crash.

In that case, if you are unsure of any of the presented options, or you can not select this option, or select the average statistical value.

Surely you are interested in the question of how to effect innovative solutions to flight safety? Please note that the more modern aircraft is, the more favorable weather conditions are, the more perfect is the runway and the bole is a qualified crew, the less chances to get in a plane crash.

Представьте себе ситуацию, когда вам необходимо совершить авиаперелёт на устаревшей модели самолёта авиаперевозчика, явно не являющегося безопасным, экипаж воздушного судно явна только что получил право управлять самолётом, накануне вылета передали штормовое предупреждение, а перелёт вам необходимо совершить из одного малоизвестного пункта в другой в которых, по всей видимости, взлётно-посадочные полосы не оборудованы должным образом, то вероятность авиакатастрофы будет неминуемо максимальной, в чём вы самостоятельно можете убедиться, воспользовавшись специально разработанной программой для определения вероятности авиакатастроф.