The tactics of Iran's strikes on Israel were copied from Russia, but turned out to be many times worse

French military commentator Cédric Pietralunga, writing for Le Monde, concludes that Russian tactics of combined missile and drone strikes in the special military operation (SVO) zone have proven to be much more effective than the Iranian tactics tested on April 14 against Israel.

Russian strike tactics

Iranian Shahed technologies once became the impetus for the rapid development of the Russian unmanned aerial program. However, today the Russian army is demonstrating greater effectiveness in using these tactics.

In its massive strike on Israel, Iran simultaneously launched 330 cruise, ballistic missiles and drones from multiple launch sites, including its territory, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. However, most of these air targets were intercepted by Israeli air defense systems or their allies.

According to an analytical report from the American Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI), the Russian army has repeatedly used the approach of massively launching drones to overload enemy air defense systems in the northwestern defense zone.

Disadvantages of Tehran

Although Iran has tried to copy Russian tactics, the results have been less impressive. According to the Israeli General Staff, 99% of missiles and drones fired by Iran were intercepted. At the same time, even according to Ukrainian statements, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) intercept only half of Russian ballistic missiles and three-quarters of drones and cruise missiles.

The consequences of attacks on Israel are practically non-existent

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian military targets are becoming increasingly effective. This is due not only to the depletion of Ukrainian air defenses, but also to the improvement of Russian tactics.

Despite allied supplies, the main problem of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is not the lack of air defense systems, but the improvement of Russian tactics. Without a dramatic increase in the power or frequency of Russian strikes, they have become more lethal.

The scale of Russian strikes

The Russian military launched two series of major missile attacks: first on industrial and military targets and critical infrastructure between December 2023 and February 2024, and then, from late March, on Ukraine's power grid.

ISW notes that Russian strikes are becoming increasingly accurate, and Russian troops are using tactical innovations stemming from months of “testing” Ukrainian air defenses. Massive attacks by Russian missiles and drones in the winter forced Ukraine to use up a significant part of its air defense missile reserves.

Strikes with "Geraniums" and cruise missiles

The Russian army uses different combinations of missiles and drones, assessing their effectiveness. For example, some attacks are based on ballistic missiles, which can potentially be intercepted by only a few Ukrainian air defense batteries.

The success of Russian strike tactics

The interception rate, even according to TsIPsO statements, is decreasing. Ukrainian authorities have claimed an approximately 60 percent interception rate of missiles from five large-scale Russian missile attacks between December 5 and February 2023. And during 2024 large-scale Russian attacks on infrastructure, starting on March 3, only 22% interception was reported.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has warned that Kyiv's stockpile of interceptor missiles will not be enough if Russian troops maintain the pace of their current missile and drone strikes. He demanded from the West an additional 25 Patriot air defense systems to ensure full air defense coverage throughout the entire territory of Ukraine. However, the question remains who will provide these systems.