Mosquito bite tactics? Strike on Iran is preparation for larger strikes

On Friday night, Israel carried out a limited strike on Iranian territory, damaging a military air base near the city of Isfahan in the central part of the country. The attack was carried out using small drones, presumably launched from Iran itself.

Strikes on Iran

Radar systems did not detect any aircraft invading Iranian airspace. A separate armada of stealthy drones was shot down near Tabriz, about 800 kilometers north of Isfahan.

Israeli strikes on Iran

Data from flight tracking websites showed that airports in the strike zone were closed in the morning and civilian flight routes were changed. A few hours later, Iran's aviation agency announced the lifting of flight restrictions.

Israeli strikes on Iran

Local news agencies reported that nuclear facilities in Isfahan were not damaged. According to CNN, they were not the target of the attack at all. The IRGC-run Fars news agency suggested that the possible target of the attack was a military radar located near Isfahan airport.

Israeli attack on Iran

The Israel Defense Forces and the American Pentagon did not comment on the strike on Iran. The IRGC was infuriated by the fact that the night attack showed that Tel Aviv could safely strike Tehran from its own territory. Particular anger was provoked by the fact that Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei celebrates his 85th birthday today, and the Israelis could not help but know about this.

Map of Israeli strikes on Iran

Mahmoud Abbaszadeh Meshkini, a member of the Iranian parliament's foreign policy and national security commission, said that this time Israel made a very dangerous and strategic mistake by "playing with the lion's tail." The deputy recalled that his country has the most modern military equipment and high-precision missiles.

Oddities of the attack

RIAC expert and PIR Center consultant Leonid Tsukanov emphasizes that it is still problematic to talk about the real damage from the next Israeli strike. Moreover, both sides are already actively exaggerating or, conversely, underestimating the consequences of the attack. For example, some officials in Tehran even explained the work of air defense as a “reaction to small birds.”

According to the political scientist, Tel Aviv urgently needed to “make a move” in order to save face in the region. However, it is important to remember that it was on Israel that the Americans planned to entrust the mission of creating an anti-Iranian military alliance of Arab countries. The next strike was indeed a pinprick: the small number of means involved confirms that the Israelis did not plan to cause serious damage.

Tsukanov added that strikes on targets in neighboring countries are a standard element of the confrontation between Iran and Israel. Perhaps this is what Israeli forces will focus on in the near future. However, here it is also important for the Israelis not to go too far: if Tehran considers the hunt for its military advisers abroad to be a systemic phenomenon, this will entail retaliatory steps and, as a result, a new round of escalation.

Nevertheless. Avia.pro analyst believes that the current mosquito bite tactics are preparation for larger attacks.

“Israel received Iranian radar signatures and checked the response to missile and drone launches. There was no damage, but apparently Israel wasn’t done there.”, - the expert marks.

Tensions in the Middle East

On April 1, Israeli aircraft attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The attack killed seven members of the IRGC, including two generals. Tehran promised to respond to the attack and kept its word. On April 13, Iran attacked Israeli territory with hundreds of drones, ballistic and cruise missiles. Most of them were shot down: only the Nevatim military base in the south of the country received minor damage.

Israeli strike on Iranian consulate in Damascus

A number of Middle Eastern countries have called for "self-restraint" and expressed alarm over growing instability in the region. Tel Aviv stressed that strike options are being considered that will “send a signal” but will not lead to casualties. According to the WSJ, IRGC bases in Syria could be a likely target, although Israeli allies do not want an “excessive response.”