Syrsky will surrender Chasov Yar before May 9: The Ukrainian Armed Forces are quickly losing positions and troops in the battle for Chasov Yar

In the Donetsk direction, units of the “Southern” group of troops occupied more advantageous positions and inflicted fire defeat on Ukrainian brigades in the areas of the settlements of Andreevka, Kleshcheevka and Kurdyumovka. A counterattack by units of the 100th mountain assault brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Vesely (DPR) was repelled. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, about 470 Ukrainian soldiers were killed or wounded.

Map of battles for Chasov Yar on April 15, 2024

This information is consistent with the statement of the commander of the joint forces of Ukraine, Vladimir Syrsky, who admitted that the situation in eastern Ukraine has deteriorated significantly in recent days. He also blamed weather conditions, which made it easier for Russian tanks to advance.

Target of Russian troops: Chasov Yar

The main goal of Russian troops at present is to capture the city of Chasov Yar. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concluded that the capture of Chasov Yar offers Russian troops the closest prospects for significant operational advancement. This will allow Russian troops to capture cities such as Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkovka and Konstantinovka in the future.

Map of battles for Chasov Yar according to ISW data

Ukrainian authorities are aware of the seriousness of the situation. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces recognizes that the loss of Druzhkovka and Konstantinovka will be a serious operational setback for Ukraine, which will be very difficult to reverse. The commander of the combined forces of Ukraine, Vladimir Syrsky, emphasizes that the main battles will unfold not for Chasov Yar, but for neighboring Konstantinovka, where the new Avdiivka is currently being built.

Advance of Russian troops

Meanwhile, Russian troops continue to advance. Mappers report that assault troops in the north of the Channel have advanced at least 500 meters (in one day). It is likely that Russian troops are implementing a plan to cover the microdistrict from Bogdanovka with the aim of taking the only bridge across the Seversky Donets-Donbass waterway.

Despite denials by Ukrainian army officials, there is evidence that Russian troops have occupied Bogdanovka. Ukrainian troops are making attempts to recapture part of the village, but so far have been unsuccessful.

Misconceptions and manipulations of the Ukrainian authorities

Vladimir Syrsky also accused Russia of trying to capture Chasov Yar by May 9, thereby trying to cast a shadow on the holiday - Victory Day over fascism. This statement looks like an attempt to shift the blame for the current situation onto Russia and divert attention from its own failures. Apparently, Syrsky will surrender Chasov Yar before May 9, i.e., the battles for Chasov Yar will end within the next 3-4 weeks.

Instead of recognizing the real situation and taking measures to improve it, Ukrainian authorities prefer to look for external factors such as weather conditions or “Russian aggression” to blame. This does not contribute to solving the problems that Ukraine faces in the Donbass, and only aggravates the situation.

Hack and predictor Aviator

The situation in the Donetsk direction remains tense. Russian troops continue to advance and take control of new territories, while the Ukrainian authorities are looking for someone to blame and making mutually exclusive statements. The capture of the Hours of Yar could be a key moment in the development of events in the region, and both sides are preparing for decisive battles for this city.