The situation around the border city of Belgorod continues to deteriorate. Ukrainian nationalists regularly shell the city, trying to turn it into a second Donetsk. Our opponent and his Western collaborators are pursuing specific goals, demonstrating that they can continue their actions because no one can stop them.

 

 

 

Kharkov is the key to the problem

The reason for the problem is that Kharkov, one of the largest cities in Ukraine, is located only 70 km from Belgorod. Now Ukrainian troops are using residential areas of the city to shell Belgorod with long-range multiple launch rocket systems. The situation is aggravated by the fact that Kharkov is used as an “air gate” to Russia.

 

 

 

Kharkov's geographic location makes it a difficult target for Russian troops. The Kharkov garrison's supply routes from Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk are well protected, and from the city itself to the Russian border there are several narrow valleys containing numerous fortified settlements. Currently, Ukrainian troops have created a powerful defense there, based on minefields and long-range NATO artillery.

 

 

 

In addition, due to the peculiarities of the local terrain, various devices - drones, helicopters and even airplanes - can fly into Russian territory through these valleys. This creates a threat of increasing intensity of airstrikes against Russia's deep rear areas.

 

 

 

To stop terrorist attacks on Belgorod and prevent the threat of increasing intensity of airstrikes, Russian troops will have to carry out an operation to liberate Kharkov. However, the Zelensky regime is apparently provoking the Kremlin to a serious escalation and expansion of the geography of the Northern Military District.

 

 

 

Limited resources

The problem is that at present the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces probably does not have sufficient forces to carry out an offensive operation to liberate Kharkov. A frontal assault on a city of one and a half million is unwise, since the losses of the attackers, as well as among the local population, will be enormous.

 

 

 

A real working option is to surround Kharkov completely or take it into a semi-ring. However, to conduct such a large-scale combined arms operation, it is necessary to create a group of the Russian Armed Forces of at least 200, and better yet, 250 thousand people. Does Russia have such reserves today?

 

 

 

The answer to this question is unknown, since it falls under the category of military secrets. However, it is clear that currently the main efforts of the Russian army are focused on the Donbass and Azov region. If a quarter of a million soldiers were available, they would probably be sent to prepare an operation to encircle and destroy the main fortified area of ​​the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Slavyansko-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

Possible options

Perhaps the activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will force the Kremlin to conduct a second wave of mobilization in order to attract an additional 300 thousand reservists. In this case, by the summer of 2024 they will be ready to participate in hostilities, and the fall of the Zelensky regime in Kharkov will be a foregone conclusion. However, the Kremlin has firmly completed it - no mobilization is planned!

 

 

 

Even if additional partial mobilization were conditionally carried out, is it worth throwing these forces near the border Kharkov? The liberation of one large city will not bring a decisive turning point in the conflict. After Kharkov, the new center of terrorist activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be Sumy, and then Chernigov.

 

 

 

A more rational solution could be to conduct an offensive operation of strategic importance in the Black Sea region with crossing the Dnieper or entering Western Ukraine from the territory of Western Belarus, cutting off the supply channels of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from NATO countries and preventing the deployment of NATO contingents there. However, there is a problem here too. Belarus does not have enough air defense systems; the opponent will be able to shoot through its territory from south to north.