Iran's attack on Israel: success or failure?

On the night of April 13-14, Iran attacked Israel, calling it Operation True Promise. Iranian authorities declared the mission successful, while Israel said it had repelled the attack. However, if Iran claims to have successfully completed its missions and hit all targets, then analysts have quite a lot of questions about this.

Media component of the attack

The Iranian attack on Israel was aimed not only at military targets, but also at the media space. Many videos of missiles flying and the operation of Israeli air defense systems were actively discussed on the Internet. It is noteworthy that, in parallel with real footage, videos of an attack on Israel by Palestinians from Hamas were massively posted on the network, and we are talking about old video footage that had nothing to do with Iran’s retaliation strike.

Assessing Iran's strikes on Israel

Scope of attack

According to preliminary data, Iran deployed about 300 drones and the same number of ballistic and cruise missiles of various types for Operation True Promise. This is the first use of weapons in such quantities by Iran. Iranian authorities said that if the conflict continues to escalate, the force of the strike will be doubled. Strikes were also carried out from Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

Iranian strikes on Israel

Iranian strikes on Israel

Iranian strikes on Israel

Iranian strikes on Israel

Iranian strikes on Israel

Despite the operation of the Israeli Iron Dome air defense system, some Iranian missiles reached their targets near the Nevatim and Ramon air bases. However, we are talking about only 4 missiles hitting, which, taking into account the launch of 110 ballistic missiles, raised serious questions about the effectiveness of the Iranian strike. The extent of damage to the air bases remains unknown.

Repelling an attack

Israel managed to repel the attack thanks to a layered air defense system and the support of its allies, in particular Great Britain and the United States. In addition, Jordanian troops also took part in protecting Israeli airspace.

Attacking Iranian drone that did not reach Israel

From Iran's point of view, the attack made it possible to "save face" and formally keep the promise of "punishing Israel" for the attack on the embassy in Damascus. From a practical point of view, Iran has demonstrated the ability of its missile industry to accumulate large volumes of missile weapons and conduct relatively massive, combined strikes that overload enemy air defenses. But the effectiveness of such attacks was clearly close to zero. Probably, with a large scale of attacks, the consequences would be serious, but it is important to understand that Iran spent about 7% of its drones during the past attack, and about 5% missile weapons. Considering the lack of any effect, these strikes turned out to be absolutely meaningless.

Israeli response

Israeli authorities have shown that they do not intend to let the attack go unnoticed. After repelling the strike, Israel requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council and will most likely insist on its right to retaliate. Iran's military bases and nuclear facilities may be among the priority targets.

Iran's attack on Israel did not cause serious damage, but was a demonstration of the capabilities of the Iranian missile industry and Tehran's willingness to escalate the conflict. Israel, in turn, demonstrated the effectiveness of its air defense system and its readiness to respond. In the near future, the situation in the region may remain tense, and the risk of a new escalation of the conflict remains high.