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Forecast of development of the air travel market 2014 - 2033 years.

Developing air transport market and its dependence on the growth of cities

 

100 years passed from the time when the world's first passenger flew in 1914 year. Today carried 32 million annually. Voyages during which transported billion 3. 50 million passengers. Ton. The sector of air transport in total provide services in the amount of 2.4 trillion. dollars at the results of the year. Aviation has become an integral part of the global economy, working closely with international trade, becoming its integral part. Flying on airplanes became available for the majority of countries around the world, allowing you to navigate between the states.

In the coming years (2014 - 2033 years.) According to the calculations Airbus Global Market Forecast, passenger traffic will increase annually 4.7%. For the transport of passengers in the year 2033, 31400 necessary new passenger aircraft (on 100 seats and above) with a total value of 4.6 trillion. dollars. Aircraft fleet for passenger and freight transport, used today is 18500 aircraft and to increase up to 37500 2033 units by year. Of the total number of aircraft 12400 units to be replaced because of the low efficiency of operation, and will be written off.

Aircraft fleet for passenger and freight traffic,

used today is 18500 aircraft

and should increase to 37500 2033 units to the year.

The pace of economic growth and population growth in rapidly developing regions such as Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East are higher than in developed regions. For example, in Asia, the population will increase from 33% in 2014, to 63% in 2033 relative to the total population of the planet. Urbanization of cities and concentration of wealth are accelerating, the number of aviation mega-cities will double and reach 91. These cities will be the centers of creation and development of new industries, they will create the bulk of GDP and carry out more than 95% of long-haul transport of passengers and cargo.

In Latin America, Africa and Asia-Pacific growth will occur inter-regional and domestic passenger traffic. For example, in India to increase the flow of domestic air passengers reaching 10 place in terms of traffic to 2033 year.
Growth of the fleet will continue in Europe with faster pace replace inefficient aircraft models, new models can save up to 20% fuel compared with the previous models

.
The trend of development of domestic transportation in China continues over the next 10 years and the output to 1 is the total volume of the world's air traffic among all countries. The market of standard sizes and models of aircraft will be modified. There will be a reorientation of companies to wide-body models of aircraft for passenger transportation on long-haul lines. The demand of companies is 9300 units of wide-body passenger liners and small aircraft in the next 20 years, with total costs of 2.5 trillion. Dollars. This will be 30% of the total number of aircraft deliveries during the forecast period and 55% of their value.

Particularly strong demand for models with similar harakteristikami- Airbus 350 XWB и Airbus 330 neo.

 

 

Airbus 350 XWB photo -40

Airbus 350 XWB

The demand for wide-bodied aircraft is 7800 units in the model with a capacity of 250 to 400 places and 1500 units with a capacity of more than 400 places to run on the busiest routes, reflecting the growth of passenger traffic between cities in the Asia-Pacific region (50%), Middle East (16%), Europe (15%) and North America (9%).

Airbus Company in this market segment, holds a leading position, wide-body models A330, A350, A380 aircraft on the market have a strong demand from airlines in the model number of the 200 500 up seats.
Single-aisle models of the company, especially Airbus 320 neo, is the leading model in its class. Demand to 2033 years 22000 of new aircraft in the amount of 2.1 trillion. or $ 79% of the total number and value of 45% of all deliveries.
The demand for single-aisle aircraft will remain at a high level in Europe and North America, and will be about 22% and 21% respectively.

Rapid growth in demand is expected in China and India, the total amount to 38% for the entire Asia-Pacific region.

Due to the increase in traffic capacity of aircraft increased by 40% compared to 1980 years. Application of more capacious moles A380 allowed to take some of the increased load on the transport of passengers.

 

BERESNEV Ivan

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