Ergatic System in Transport: Aviation

It is believed that in recent decades the world has ergatic. Now mankind has huge energy and information resources, and its adaptation to the modern environment is achieved by not only genetic, how much hardware.

Complex technical systems (STS) are common in various areas of human activity, and ergodic systems (ES) play a dominant role in the technology field. These are systems with a wide range of capabilities, the ability to self-organize, considerable freedom of behavior, a large amount of information and speed, with a life cycle that is equal to or longer than the human life. Due to specific features such systems are allocated to a separate class of non-traditional control objects. In accordance with this, new methods of research and analysis of the processes of their functioning and exploitation are being developed and disseminated.

The emergence of such systems and the rapid pace of improvement in technology, in particular aviation, far outstrip the development of human qualities, limiting the human capabilities in the processes of its interaction with a modern aircraft. The result is different types of conflicts. Under such conditions, the conflict has received a new interpretation, and now it is understood as a way of interaction of objects, as a result of which the conflicting parties not only separate and oppose one another, but in some cases unite and function together, rolling new over a system that acquires independent properties, not Inherent to none of the objects, but having a significant impact on these objects. In this situation, neither the researcher, nor the system, nor the objects have complete information about themselves and each other, but use their own subjective ideas and judgments.

Ergatic conflicts are common to all types of systems. They are summarized in its tendencies and manifestations, as in the operation of the JTS of any nature have much in common. This commonality evident in critical and emergency situations that require non-standard solutions.

Each conflict corresponds to a certain level of danger and risk. Obviously, the settlement of the conflict and the avoidance of danger occur as a result of the decision (PR) decision by the person who makes the decision (decision maker) or the group of decision-makers. At the heart of the functioning of ergatical systems is precisely the process of the PR, because the ES is a man-machine system. The operation of the ES involves the involvement of individuals (or groups of individuals) who make decisions at different hierarchical levels, so the PR process is multi-step and distributed in time and space. At each level, it has a clearly expressed information character, and its general structure is practically the same for all levels.

Research in the field of safety of operation of aviation equipment today need new approaches, methodologies and technologies. This is due to the following reasons:

• a sharp increase in velocity and altitude; extension meteorological restrictions on flight operations;

• the increase in air traffic;

• complexity of the design as a result of increasing the size and increase the level of automation of the Armed Forces of the new generation;

• by additional factors related to the operation of the aging equipment;

• features operational conditions related to the economic situation of certain countries;

• the emergence of the need for additional training and retraining of both aircrew and aircraft support services specialists;

• computerization of processes related to the implementation and maintenance operations;

• the introduction of "glass cockpit" or cabins of high information technologies; manifestations of different types of terrorism; energy-influences.

Among aviation experts the world is spreading the view that to ensure the safe operation of aircraft equipment necessary to investigate the functioning of the individual elements are not, and ES "VS- crew environment" in general, as this approach allows you to identify the features and undesirable aspects of the interaction of the system components.

A systematic approach to the study of ergatic system "BC-crew environment" requires some clarification and harmonization of concepts, in particular, such as system security, system diagnostics, information space ergatic functioning of the system, man-made and other risks.

Thus, the purpose of a systematic approach to the study of operating systems ergatic "Sun-crew environment" is to ensure the safe operation of the system of EC in space, its actual properties and capabilities. This approach will enable the introduction of the principle "to provide and prevent" rather than existing in aviation for a long time the principle of "detect and correct."

A systematic approach to the study of the process of operation provides for the introduction of the system analysis, the results of which are shown. In particular, the main features of the study is the presence of ergatic:

• traits that characterize the ES as a non-traditional facility management, in particular persons (groups of persons) who decide on the different stages of its operation, etc .;

• various uncertainties including information in the space properties and capabilities of the system;

• risks associated with the operation of the system;

• distinct entity (the crew) and the object of the risk (the sun and the environment in which the entity operates).

System security operation ES "Sun-crew environment" ensuring the identification of all the factors of conflicts, risks and dangers, which interfere with the normal functioning of this system.

To date, mankind has accumulated a significant amount of data, which are the results of research: the functioning and operation of various types of aircraft; Features of professional activities of pilots; Technologies of maintenance and repair of aircraft; Air traffic control, etc. Each field of research has a fairly extensive list of those undesirable factors that create danger and special situations in flight. For example, within the framework of the concept set forth, a complete list of aircraft failures is compiled, which are risk factors for the crew. In works the characteristics of the crew, the requirements to them are considered and the errors of the flight crew and their reasons are analyzed. The results of studies of different types of risk are given in this book. This, in particular, the risks of aircraft collisions in flight, the risk factors generated by the external environment, the risk of a third party, etc.

It should be noted that it is impossible to directly combine the data obtained in the process of investigating the risk of the occurrence of particular phenomena and states for the analysis of the risk of operating the ES "VS-crew-environment" because of their different nature, different units of measure, methods of obtaining and methodology for carrying out the experiments. In this connection, the task arises of developing the basic principles of system diagnostics for the formation of such an information space of ES "VS-crew-environment", in which, like a phase space, it is possible to form a vector of current characteristics of the system as a point of space and further determine the trajectory of the system in this space As a set of its states.

As you can see, the purpose of the system analysis of ES "VS- crew environment" is the formation of a plurality of such characteristics (properties) that best reflect the interactions of its elements to identify combinations of these characteristics associated with an unacceptable risk of its operation.

The task of the system analysis of ES "Sun crew environment" is solved in several phases, which are:

• 1) analysis of information flows circulating in the structure of the ES;

• 2) identification of types and sources of uncertainty existing in the process of system functioning;

• 3) identification and classification of sources of risk, manifested during the operation of the ES, and the choice of methods for its quantitative assessment;

• 4) development of the basic principles of system diagnostics and the formation of an information space of ES properties.

On the results of the system analysis based further measures to ensure the safety of the system the system under study.

INFORMATION FLOWS AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOOP SYSTEM ergatic "AIRCRAFT CREW-environment"

Information flows circulating in the structure of the ES "Sun-crew environment" can be divided into five groups:

• 1) streams consisting of well-formalized information (as a rule, these are characteristics that can be accurately represented in numerical form);

• 2) streams consisting of verbal or textual information that can be represented, for example, in the form of linguistic variables;

• 3) flows resulting from the combination of numerical and linguistic data (formed by the intersection or merging of two or more flows of the 1st and 2nd groups);

• 4) information with fuzzy numerical reproduction (for example, expert assessments);

• 5) information that is impossible to formalize (perhaps due to a high degree of uncertainty).

Consider the types and sources of uncertainty existing in the operation of the system ergatic "aircraft-ekipazh- environment".

As noted, the EC "Sun-crew environment" relates to non-traditional objects of management, which is necessary to develop specific strategies of decision-making to ensure the safety of their operation.

To date, research in various fields of human activities that have problems making decisions, have significant results. Of these, follow the basic tenets of the theory of uncertainty. For the process of ES operation "Sun crew environment" uncertainty - is a fundamental characteristic of the insufficient supply of complex decision-making group, which in many cases are distributed in space and time.

The uncertainty arises in the process of forming solutions through information.

Ergatic system "BC-crew environment" includes three main components, which are non-traditional objects of management.

The analysis of data on aviation events and incidents allows us to identify several groups of main factors that are sources of uncertainty and which largely impede the realization of the ability of the subject of risk to reach the established goal of the activity, creating an intra-system conflict. These factors, in essence, are the prerequisites (in many cases, hidden), which lead to the disruption of the expedient interaction of the elements of the system. Identification of these prerequisites helps to find the patterns of their manifestation and provide for the moments of their manifestation, which will correspond to the implementation of the principle of "to provide and prevent."

In the operation of ES "Sun crew environment" main sources of uncertainty are:

• pilot interaction (of the crew), with high-tech automation cockpit;

• the interaction of the pilot (crew) with aging equipment;

• disadvantages of training of flight personnel;

• lacks information for the crew;

• environmental impact; errors and shortcomings in the work of security services (eg, services, maintenance and repair of air traffic control, meteorological services, and others.);

• ambiguous interpretation of regulations;

• the existence of structural shortcomings of the sun;

• pursuit of commercial objectives; energy-influence; the threat of terrorism and hooligan shares on the ground and on board the aircraft; cyber-terrorism.

As an example, a manifestation of aspects of conflict in the interaction of such categories as "flight safety - profit", "reliability engineering - the cost of maintenance and repairs", "glass cockpit - ergatic for the crew," "break in the flight - the economic condition of the airline - the cost of fuel, "" aging equipment - risk appetite, "" adverse environmental factors - a tendency to stress "and others.

Uncertainty gives rise to any type of risk associated with the operation of EC.

RISKS shown during ergatic OPERATING SYSTEM "AIRCRAFT CREW-environment"

Basic concepts

Considerable attention in each field of research is given to risk assessment. But the results of such an assessment, the numerical equivalent of the level of risk and the assessment methodology can be applied only to solve specific problems, for example, to determine the risk of a third party, the risk of aircraft falling into adverse atmospheric conditions, or the risk of aircraft collisions in flight. Nevertheless, in the study of the operation of the STS, these techniques are generally unacceptable. Therefore, one of the most important tasks is to assess the risk of exploitation of the STS, which is generated by the properties and capabilities of its elements, as well as their interaction. In this case, it is advisable to determine one type of risk the risk of loss of human life, which is a concept containing all the private components.

The first step in determining the risk of exploitation of EC "Sun-crew environment" is an analysis of the concept of "risk", its interpretation and determination of the types of factors and assessment methods, particularly in the field of man-made.

Until recently, the risk is considered actions in the face of uncertainty, the consequence of which may be favorable or unfavorable results. With the development of accurate basic science there is objective prerequisites for the establishment of methods for determining the danger on the basis of the introduction of certain measures. The practical need for the introduction of such a measure of danger caused by the need to have a mechanism for managing risk in the different spheres of human activity.

In the early 1960-ies of the safety analysis is mainly based on empirical methods. The concept of "risk analysis" is not used, and the term "reliability" was used mainly in the aerospace and military industries. For obvious reasons, the initial impetus for the development of numerical methods for evaluating the reliability of the aviation industry gave. After the First World War due to the increasing intensity of operations and the number of speakers were developed for aircraft reliability criteria and requirements to safety.

Today there is a certain amount of experience in research hazard and risk assessment, which are manifested in various spheres of human activity. This makes it possible to identify the main approaches, general concepts, theoretical principles and methods of risk assessment in the financial, environmental and technological fields. Development of general theoretical ideas presented in the works, and the results of the study of risks in the financial and environmental sectors considered.

In the study of the operation of ES "VS-crew-environment" the most interesting is technogenic risk - an objective-subjective category, characteristic for the process of functioning of elements of a complex technical system and associated with overcoming an unfavorable situation in the presence of uncertainties. Technogenic risk is manifested, as a rule, in the decision-making process. This category reflects the degree of deviation of the actual state of the ES from the purpose of functioning (expected result) and the level of losses in case of not overcoming the unfavorable situation, and also takes into account the influence of controlled (uncontrolled) factors and different types of connections between the STS elements. This definition is based on a systematic approach to the STS investigation and testifies to the need to analyze the impact on the process of the functioning of the STS of a variety of external and internal risk factors and the risk attitude of the ergatic components of the system.

Define the main components that are considered in the study of the operation of ES "VS-crew-environment". In the context of these studies, the VS is the risk object, and the risk entity is a small group of people (crew) who are highly motivated to achieve the goal of the system by the system, has a direct management procedure and has the right to decide on the formation of such a procedure. The source of risk are factors (phenomena, processes) that cause a variety of uncertainties and, as a consequence, conflicts in the elements of the system under investigation.

These considerations allow us to establish the purpose of the study, which is the definition of a set of risk factors (risk of loss of life). Because of this the decision maker can anticipate and identify the risks associated with the dangerous state of the studied system and form a decision on the avoidance of such states.

This goal is based on existing experience and risk assessment studies.

Consider the interpretation and evaluation of the risk taken in several areas of human activity.

The complexity of risk classification is determined by the diversity and specificity of the areas in which they are examined. There are risks, possible for all objects, but there are specific, inherent only in certain types of human activity.

The generated current risk classification structure quite fully reflects the diversity and complexity of human activity. It is advisable to classify the risks in accordance with the criteria to be selected for each area of ​​activity.

According to the generalized risk criteria are divided into the following types:

• hierarchical level of the process or object of research - global and local;

• by the time the appearance - short-term and permanent;

• on the degree of legality - justified and unjustified (justified and unjustified);

• possible valuation losses - estimated and that is impossible to assess; field displays internal and external; Resources ecological, natural, environmental, industrial, social, political, etc .;

• the character display dynamic and static;

• Aspects manifestations psychological, social, legal, financial, etc .;

• as objectivity - objective and subjective;

• by the degree of saturation - minimum, medium, permissible, critical, catastrophic;

• as validity - rational and irrational;

• terms of valuation and accounting anticipating, timely and overdue;

• on the number of persons taking part in decision-making - individual, group and collective;

• classes of situational sources - manifested in conditions of uncertainty, in conflict, and so on. n .;

• of the area of ​​origin of the socio-political, legislative, administrative, legal, commercial and natural environmental;

• on the degree of the system - non-systemic and systemic;

• on the basis of implementation - implemented and unrealizable;

• the type of group that implements the decision, - individual and group decisions;

• on the scale of influence - the sole and multi-personal;

• possible prediction - forecast partly predictable and unpredictable;

• the degree of influence on the activity of people - negative, not positive affect.

Strong experience of risk research, which manifests itself in various spheres of human activity, allows us to classify the risk factors that operate in the ES "VS-crew-environment". But the complication of aviation technology, the approximation of technologies that are used in the implementation of flights to space, the increase in the intensity of air traffic, the speed and altitude of flight, the reorganization of the structure of the air transport system, as well as the economic, social and political factors of some countries, Determine the allocation of the investigated system to a separate category. The main thing for her is not the risk of financial and material losses, damage to the environment or the coverage of material damage, and the risk of loss of human life is the highest and most important category of risk.

Types of risks inherent in the system components ergatic

The types of risks that occur during operation ergatic system "BC-crew environment" should correspond to the categories of subjects of risk and the classification of those situations in which it conducts business subjects at risk.

Based on the fundamentals of the theory and principles of EC research, select the components of the system under study, which can be a source of uncertainty and conflict, and thus the risk of:

• 1) the main ergatic component is the crew, which directly controls the object risk and paramount right to make managerial decisions;

• 2) a minor ergatic component - groups of persons who ensure the performance of flights and indirectly relate to the generation of a governing decision;

• 3) the main technical component is an aircraft that acts as a direct object of risk;

• 4) secondary technical component - technical and other flight support facilities that indirectly relate to the functioning of the risk object;

• 5) the external environment is a direct source of risk.

Consider the category of risk inherent in each of the constituent elements of EC "Sun crew environment."

It is clear that the greatest risk associated with the actual process of the flight. It combines the two main categories of risk - a dynamic that relates to unforeseen situations that may arise during the flight and static associated with the technical state of the technical component. This risk is expedient to relate with these types of flight situations, such as normal operation, the complication of the flight conditions, emergency and catastrophic situations.

According to the classification of flight situations, you can select these types of risk:

Invalid associated with loss of life; the risk of failure of the main object, causing substantial material damage;

risk of damage to the main object, inflicting minor damage to property.

These species are directly related to the execution of the flight concerned and the main subject of risk.

For other components, which anyway are involved in the operation of the system, it is advisable to allocate:

• risk of damage to the environment;

• risk conditions the quality of the flight;

• commercial risk; political risk;

• the risk of prosecution;

• marketing risks;

• transportation risks;

• risk that the subject matter hereof; risk conditions prices (tariffs);

• Risk conditions of supply; the risk of monetary conditions by human activities;

• Risk conditions of force majeure;

• the risk of certain conditions to arbitration and others.

The most interesting for this topic unacceptable risk - the risk of damage to the object and (or) its destruction which threatens the life or health of passengers and crew.

Risk classification, shown during ergatic OPERATING SYSTEM "AIRCRAFT CREW-environment"

The structure of the ES "Sun crew environment" at the first stage dictates the classification procedures to identify three groups of risk factors:

• 1) with the main technical component - aircraft;

• 2) with the main ergatic component - the crew;

• 3) with the "external environment" component.

The second step is to form a plurality of risk factors for each element ES.

Risk factors associated with the element of "aircraft". Analysis of the data allows the AP to form a plurality of the main reasons that become hazards aircraft operation, t. E. Were risk factors for the crew and passengers of aircraft:

• unforeseen failures and failure of structural elements of aircraft;

• destruction of structural elements in flight due to structural fatigue, deformation and corrosion of materials and the interaction of unintended m. p .;

• failure of structural elements Sun in the blasts, which occurred during the flight; inaccurate work of structural elements of aircraft; unintended behavior of aircraft in flight due to unknown causes;

• increase humidity inside the aircraft;

• old wiring; overloaded aircraft;

• climatic conditions (mismatch conditions of place-based Sun design constraints).

Risk factors associated with the item "crew." Analysis of the data allows the AP to form a plurality of the main reasons for that are related to the properties of the crew and become a source of danger. Risk factors correlated with the element of "crew" can be roughly divided into the following groups:

• lack of professional experience; unwarranted risk-taking (high personal risk tolerance);

• inadequate crew training (particularly for operations in accordance with a certain category); disorientation; tiredness;

• negligence (non-compliance); improper interaction with equipment cabin;

• first acquired the habit; significant tendency to stress; lack the ability to recognize a dangerous situation;

• revaluation of its features; distrust of the instrument;

• adverse climatic conditions; general state of health;

• the problem of social protection;

• regulatory and legal provision determining guilt aircrew.

Separately, it should be noted the problems associated with the operation of small aircraft. According to the results of the investigations in this case, the predominant cause of the AP are:

• reduction in aircrew skills, tendency of higher qualification of pilots to re-evaluate their capabilities and violation of flight guidance;

• reduce the effectiveness of the Sun Management at low speeds during approach and others.

Risk factors associated with the “external Wednesday". Factors of this kind can be roughly divided into the following groups:

• Increased turbulence;

• Rain at the approach and during the flights in mountainous terrain;

• fog;

• icing;

• heavy snow, lack of visibility; heavy rain; lightning strike;

• bad weather flying over the sea;

• hit in the wake; night time;

• a strong gust of wind during landing;

• collision with birds and animals.

Risk factors associated with the element of "minor ergatic component." The secondary component ergatic are groups of individuals who are involved in the functioning of the ES, but the staff are not directly controlling the aircraft (flight service, control element, etc..).

Risk factors associated with the element of "minor ergatic component" can be roughly divided into the following groups:

• unauthorized activities of ATC staff;

• unauthorized activity MRO service personnel;

• transport of dangerous goods; structural deficiencies; the use of low-quality fuel; the organization of flights;

• the use of low-quality technical support, in particular the parts necessary for the maintenance and repair of aircraft.

Risk factors associated with the element of "minor technical component." Thus the technical component are devices that are used in the operation of complex, but does not directly relate to aircraft. Risk factors associated with this element, relate directly to hardware airports. They are:

• mismatch equipment category and category of airport landing conditions;

• insufficient lighting and runway approach zone;

• unsatisfactory condition of the pavement and ground elements of the aerodrome;

• mismatch geometric dimensions and strength characteristics of the elements of the aerodrome;

• lack of data on the height and location of obstacles in the terminal area;

• the poor state of the subsystems and components of lighting equipment;

• the poor state of cable networks; the poor state of radio equipment, electric power supply and software;

• unsatisfactory state of emergency equipment;

• deviation parameters of the equipment from the airport standards of validity;

• Airport mismatch categories and levels to ensure its protection by means of fire;

• progressive aging and wear of fire equipment;

• lack of adequate communication and information-term funds;

• inadequate composition meteorological equipment of the runway;

• no registration meteorological information transmitted to the display means;

• job insecurity meteorological equipment within the tolerances;

• operation of civil aviation and military aerodromes of experimental aviation;

• AIRCRAFT top class on the ground that are not designed for this.

Risk factors associated with the element "threat of unforeseen events". In recent years, it is very common following safety hazards:

• kidnapping and armed seizure of the aircraft; unauthorized transport of dangerous goods; violation of the rules of conduct on board passenger unruly hooligans;

• loss of aircraft with portable missiles land;

• flights to radioactive areas;

• Sabotage on the basis of economic competition;

• cyber-terrorism;

• energy-influence.

Risk factors on the results of the system analysis. Based on the considerations relating to a systematic approach to the study of the process operation ergatic system "BC crew environment", as well as existing approaches to the study of the risks and this classification of risk factors that occur in the operation of the system under study, it is advisable to all identified risk factors to classify external and internal.

External risk factors are conditions that the subject of risk cannot change, but should anticipate and take into account, as they are in many cases have a decisive impact on flight safety. External risk factors create opportunities for the success of the risk of the subject - the crew.

Internal risk factors generated by the actual subject of risk as a result of improper and (or) untimely activity, in particular, because making the wrong decision. Internal risk factors are caused by the properties of the actual subject of the risk, ie. E. Crew.

The results of the system analysis of ES "Sun-crew environment" allow the adoption of the following agreements:

• the system under study is one subject of risk - the crew, which itself creates risk factors (namely - domestic) because of its properties as a group operator;

• Other components ES provide opportunities for the subject of risk, ie. ie. an environment in which it must make a decision and carry out professional activities, and also create external risk factors;

• the subject of the study of risk is very high motivation for activity, since it is responsible not only for their lives but also the lives of many people; Under these conditions, the cost of failure is significantly increased risk of the subject;

• the subject of risk is of particular relevance to risk, which can not be compared with the risk of involvement in ergatic other components of the system, due to which this property is worthy of a separate study;

• solving the problem of ensuring system security ES "Sun-crew environment", considered only one type of risk - the risk of loss of human life.

As part of the approach we take the definition of risk which is based on the concept of the properties and capabilities of the STS: risk - is the possibility of implementing a system of its actual properties in specific, factual circumstances is, particular time or for a certain period of operation.

These agreements allow to shape the space ergatic properties of the "Sun-crew environment" as a collection of the properties of its components, adverse interaction that leads to a threat to the life of the crew and passengers.

RISK ASSESSMENT SYSTEM OPERATION ergatic "AIRCRAFT CREW-environment" On using modern information technologies

Investigation of the operation of the STS is accompanied by complex information situations that are characterized by significant a priori uncertainty of knowledge about the properties of the research object and the influence of the external environment, as well as the inability to directly observe many properties, the inaccuracy and incompleteness of experimental information about them. For such situations it is impossible to apply traditional measurement methodologies, on the basis of which the result of measurements can be presented only in numerical form and obtained only on the basis of experimental numerical information. It is also not possible to use the principle of measurement uniformity.

These aspects make the solution of the problem posited by traditional methods not only inefficient, but generally impossible, because of poor quality of the result and a high level of residual uncertainty that can not be controlled. Hence the need to improve the methodological basis of measurement systems to enhance their cognitive function. It is necessary to obtain the results of generalized measurements in the form of knowledge (analytical expressions for models, as well as conclusions and recommendations with their full metrological justification in the form of complexes of quality indicators) on the basis of taking into account the entire volume of information - a priori and that received as a result of the experiment, in particular Non-numerical.

Such requirements led to the involvement of the theory of optimal solutions, artificial intelligence and fuzzy systems in the apparatus measurements environment. The need to measure non-quantitative properties of objects contributes to the creation of a common (representative) measurement theory. In particular, a successful combination of measure theories, scales and fuzzy sets has been obtained. Currently, the concept of "measurement" is used in determining the membership function and the degree of fuzziness. The types of measurement scales that are most effective for implementing logical inference in decision-making systems are also defined.

As a result of this integration theory arose the concept of smart metering.

The concepts of computational intelligence and "soft" computing introduced by L. Zadeh in 1994 At that time, he formulated the basic principle of "soft" computing - namely tolerance inaccuracies and partial truth to the possibility of interpreting, as well as the flexibility and low cost of the result.

"Hard" calculations are based on accurate models containing considerations, which are based on symbolic logic and classical methods of computing and information retrieval.

For "soft" calculations using approximate models, which include methods of approximate reasoning and computational methods based on the function approximation, random search and optimization.

Methods of approximate reasoning, included in the procedures of "soft" calculations, are based on two mechanisms of inference - the conditional and the rule "modus ponens". The conditional mechanism includes Nelson's probabilistic models, Nguyen's fuzzy probabilistic logic, probabilistic deductions on Bayesian networks, subjective Bayesian methods, methods based on confidence functions (Demerser Shafer's theory), Smetz's confidence functions, upper and lower probabilities of Fagi on-Galperin. The second mechanism ("modus ponens") is multivalued logic (algebra), fuzzy logic and theory of possibilities.

Computational methods that are "soft" and calculation is based on functional approximation, random search and optimization, are divided into local mechanisms (neural networks) and global (evolutionary programming) searches.

Many of the approaches that constitute the direction of "soft" computing, are universal, yet they complement each other well and are used in different combinations to create models and hybrid intelligent systems.

Hybrid intelligent systems in purpose and implementation of machine conventionally classified into the following types:

• hybrid systems with functional substitution, wherein one model is used in which one element is replaced by another model;

• hybrid systems with interaction, composed of independent modules that communicate and perform different functions for a single solution; Such systems are used in cases when a task is divided into a number of subproblems - pattern recognition, logical inference, optimization, etc .;

• Polymorphic hybrid system in which a model is used to simulate the operation of the other models.

In the 1990-ies in the framework of the concept of intelligent measurements, a methodology was developed for the Bayesian intellectual measurements, which are based on the regularization approach of the Bayesian approach. Such an approach is a modification of the Bayesian method of obtaining optimal solutions under conditions of considerable a priori uncertainty with the fulfillment of the requirements for the uniformity of measurements in the process of forming the solution. The methodology of intelligent measurements makes it possible to synthesize scales of a new type intended for the realization of generalized measurements. Its goal is to achieve a qualitative solution to the applied problem on the basis of a comprehensive study of the properties of the STS and the environment for its operation (operation).

The scales are realized in a new type of metric spaces of dynamic systems and their carriers are called scales with dynamic constraints. They are able to change its structure to adapt to the changes in the properties of ITS in the course of its development, taking into account changes in the properties of the medium.

Thus, the solution of applied problems based on the methodology of smart metering is the process of purposeful transformation of the hierarchical structure of the scale with dynamic constraints, which adequately reflects the properties of ITS evolution.

The results of smart metering, which actually is an umbrella can be:

• the numerical value of the parameter; analytical form of functional dependence; analytical system dependencies that determine the state of the STS;
• linguistic values ​​and expressions for the conclusions and decisions about the properties of ITS;
• recommendations to ensure the sustainability and safety of the CTC.

The basic principle advantages of smart metering are:

• Integration of information in the form of various maps to increase or achieve the desired quality of the solution;

• metrological support of these solutions in the form of quantitative measures posteriori (residual) uncertainty (for example, the accuracy of performance, reliability, durability);

• implementation of the principle of self-development models of objects of measurement and protection of their functioning (operation), based on the adaptation of the scale with dynamic constraints to the actual properties of the CTC.

In the operation of ES "Sun-crew environment" evaluate system security by developing technology to assess the risk of operating the system under specific conditions, ie. E. In the presence of specific (actual) features and capabilities of its components.

These considerations allow us to formulate a system to ensure the safety of EC "Sun crew environment" as the task of making a multi-step solutions, distributed in time and space. The task is to find the PR such combinations of input parameters (grade properties and capabilities ES) for which the value of the initial value (the risk of) will be minimal.

Within the framework of existing approaches to risk analysis and modeling, approaches that rely on the basic assumptions of probability theory and mathematical statistics are used. These approaches provide for the availability of statistical data, which by their type should be numerical. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the space of properties of the ergative system "ВС-crew-environment" has an anisotropic structure and contains data of various information types, a significant part of which are qualitative data, in particular, expert estimates. This requires the use of an apparatus for intelligent measurements, which can be the formation of an information space for the ES "Aircraft crew-environment" properties and a risk scale as a scale with dynamic constraints.

Risk - the category of quality, and it can not be quantified by direct measurement. This means that the risk must be assessed on some qualitative characteristics of the studied system status (the use of quantitative indicators is not excluded) and based on the quality indicator is a quantitative equivalent to determine the level of risk for certain combinations of features state of the system (its actual properties and capabilities).

Qualitative indicators are formed on the basis of expert information. One way to picture expert information is the use of linguistic variables (LP) and the fuzzy numbers. In general, LP is described as follows:

We represent the concept of "risk" by LP.

Experts estimate specialist status element (system) and the correlation with the state of a particular risk is the task of the PR on the selection of one alternative from a given set. Many alternatives (options) in this case are the terms of the set-LP, which depicts the properties of ES.

It should be noted that there are some difficulties in using expert information. As for the contingent of experts who are involved in the study of ES "The crew of the air-force", it is usually representatives of the flight crew - first and second pilots, air squadron commanders, flight mechanics, navigators, instructors of integrated simulators. Each expert assesses the situation according to his personal qualities, among which the crew's inclination to stress and take risky decisions are of particular importance. Obviously, they are qualitative concepts and can not be estimated quantitatively by direct measurements.

The risk appetite of each expert can be identified in the process of forming a group decision to assess the same situation by different experts, analyzing the trends of those assessments that experts represent. In particular, during the survey of 86 experts, among whom were the first and second pilots, air squadron commanders, flight mechanics and instructors of integrated simulators, it became apparent that the assessments of the experts are very wide and practically unacceptable for direct use in risk assessment. Applying the method of forming a group decision, they determine the amendments to the estimates showing the tendency of each expert to overestimate or underestimate the evaluation, which, in combination with data on the time of flight, work experience and status in the crew, can serve as a characteristic of the risk appetite of the expert.

As an example, consider the risk assessment of functional operating system (PS) fuel system of the AN-24 - among the fuzzy model.

Choosing the type of aircraft it is justified by considerations:

• AN-24 - this type of aircraft, which belongs to the category of aging equipment, t. e. its operation is associated with a significant risk;

• operating experience AN-24 in Ukraine is a rich information material qualitative and quantitative;

• long service life of the aircraft has created a large contingent of experts, whose opinions could be used in the process of solving this problem.

The problem of modeling is formulated in such a way. Suppose we have three types of input data X, Y and Z, which substantially affect the original parameter R. The first category of data make up the functional parameters of the FS. The second category includes properties of FS aircraft associated with its adaptation to the monitoring, diagnosis, maintenance and repair, t. E. With the activities of representatives of service maintenance. The third category includes the ergonomic properties of FS aircraft associated with its flight operations crew.

The first category can be represented as a quantitative measure in numerical form. These two categories are partly quantitative equivalent, partially - linguistic. These third category also are mixed. This means that for generating the input pattern is supposed to use a non-numeric (quality) information. For the synthesis of model (qualitative or linguistic) necessary to present all three categories of data linguistic variables.

Dozens of these categories of input data are formed on the basis of an engineering and expert analysis.

According to the results of the engineering analysis of the fuel system, four critical (from the point of view of operational safety) fuel system units are distinguished: fuel tanks and valves, fuel tank drainage subsystem, engine fuel supply subsystem, and fuel production. Engineering analysis allows to identify the main types of failures in these units, and relate them to the type of flight situation and an appropriate level of risk.

An analysis of the operating data of the AN-24 suggests that some units of the fuel system revealed a significant number of failures during the flight. This suggests an insufficient diagnosis of their technical condition and maintenance.

According to the investigation, to 35% AP and incidents in civil aviation are due to poor quality maintenance. A detailed analysis of the AP, which occurred because of the poor quality of the work of representatives of engineering services (ITS) allows you to create a list of her qualities.

The next step is to assess the ergonomic quality of the fuel system from the point of view of exploitation of its crew.

The operation of the fuel system in flight is controlled through a system of monitoring and control. The main parameters that can be monitored and for which we can estimate the technical condition of units, sections and fuel system as a whole, are the total weight of the fuel, the process of its preparation and the pressure of the fuel tank and booster pump motor. But the board controls the operation of the fuel system provides a virtually crew only alarms, ie. E. Signals the loss of individual health units.

Analysis of the ergonomic quality means cockpit leads to the conclusion that the flight may be situations where the cause of failure of the fuel system only according to the onboard control system is very difficult. In such cases, the successful completion of the flight is largely dependent on the skills of the pilots and their deep knowledge of the principles of operation of the fuel system and professional qualities, as the tendency to stress, ability to recognize the gravity of the situation in the face of uncertainty, and others.

The result of engineering, expert and ergonomic analysis is the set of the defining characteristics of the FS (fuel system), crew and maintenance services, which are a special case combination of properties of elements of EC "Sun-crew environment". It displays all the properties of the set through linguistic variables allows you to create the input data in the form of membership functions and build a fuzzy risk assessment model operation FS aircraft. In an environment fuzzy system was evaluated according to the risk modeling technology in this environment.

In the simulation revealed unfavorable combinations of input properties that correspond to different levels of risk. The results make it possible to generate and deal with the problem of optimizing the properties of ES "Sun-crew environment" in order to reduce the risk of its operation, as well as define the basic procedures of formation of the scale of risk.

Formally, the scale of measurement - is ordered triple - system with the empirical relationship; N- complete numerical system with relationships; / - function that maps U homomorphically subsystem N.

For the case when the formal system is a set of expert estimates, the scale of the risk is formed as a function of the scale of the natural numbers, which formalizes the display operation of each element of the carrier in the set of natural numbers. Curve constructed on the basis of experimental data, where the argument is a peer review, and function - the numeric equivalent of the level of risk in the fuzzy model. As a result, it is described by the function approximation.

Performing a systematic analysis of ES "Sun-ekipazh- environment" and conducting research, in particular, to assess the risk in a fuzzy logic basis, it is possible to draw some conclusions.

• 1. The rapid development of aviation technology requires the introduction of new approaches and research techniques in its operation, in particular, a systematic approach, the development of the latest theories and information technologies such as "soft" measurements, "soft" computing, artificial and computational intelligence.

• 2. Aviation accidents, of which many were recorded in different countries of the world, force us to introduce new concepts and measures (systemic security, risk, etc.) into practice.

• 3. System analysis of the ES "Aircraft crew-environment" reveals the central role of the crew as a subject of risk, the quality and capabilities of which require new approaches to its formation and maintenance.